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All right master plan part three So as Zach was mentioning the the thing that I Think is we wanted to convey probably More importantly than anything else that We're talking about here is that there Is a clear path to a sustainable energy Earth it's not Um it doesn't require Destroying uh natural habitats uh it Doesn't uh Require Us to be austere and stop using Electricity and sort of be in the cold Or anything The the story and I think that this Holds together quite well and will be Actually publishing uh detailed white Paper with all of our assumptions and Calculations is that there is a there is A clear path to a fully sustainable Earth with abundance in fact you could Support a civilization much bigger than Earth than much more than the the eight Billion humans could actually be Supported sustainably on Earth And I'm I'm just often shocked and Surprised by how few people realize this Um Most of the smart people I know actually Don't see a this clear path they think That Um There's there's not a path to a
Sustainable energy future or at least There's not one that Is sustainable at our current population Or that would have to Resort to Extreme Measures None of this is true So we're going to walk through the the Calculations for how to create a Sustainable energy civilization Yeah To set the stage today our energy Economy It's let's be honest it's sturdy and It's wasteful Over 80 percent of global energy primary Energy comes from fossil fuels and only One-third of that Global energy actually Ends up delivering useful work or heat This is the problem statement but we're Here to talk about the solution yeah It's like if for some of this I'm going To elaborate because there's there's a Very wide range of technical expertise Uh out there from people who are like You know whatever level 9 Wizards in the Subject to people who do not do Engineering at all so uh when if you Have a gasoline car Your Your you're converting less than a third Uh often maybe only 25 of the energy in The gasoline is converted into motion The rest is turning to waste heat that Does no doesn't do any good at all and
There's a lot of energy required even to Get the oil out of the ground to refine The oil and to transport the gasoline to The gas station So when you when you look at all that For a typical gasoline car is is Actually going to be using less than 20 Percent fully considered of the uh Energy from the oil actually goes into Motion So this is a when when I see people when We see people doing calculations for What does it take to create a Sustainable energy Earth they assume That the same energy amount is required For an elect for an electric an Electrified civilization versus a Combustion civilization this is not true That because uh most of the energy a Combustion is waste Heat And even to get the fuel to combust in The first place and get it to the end Use there's a lot loss along the way I Mean this is the primary energy Consumption 165 petawatt hours a year Petawatt hour is a trillion a trillion Kilowatt hours so it's a large amount of Energy but the nice thing about Electrified economy it uh there's a Better way we're going to talk about it Is that Through end use efficiency and through Efficiency along every step of the way Actually the total energy used
It halves So this is one of the most enabling Aspects of electrifying everything is That the sustainable energy economy is That much easier to accomplish it's Actually half the problem statement of The fossil fuel economy yeah and we're Being conservative here so it could be Better than half but uh we're trying to Have assumptions that are reasonable not Overly optimistic in fact slightly Pessimistic so it's really better than Half but just say for it's it's easy to Make the argument that we need half as Much energy with an electric economy Versus a combustion economy yep Um So how the master plan works you want to Talk yeah So The The the thing that is needed in at very Large scale that is not currently Present is a vast amount of battery Energy storage uh Our rough calculations Are that this is about 240 terawatt Hours or 240 000 gigawatt hours Um This is a lot of batteries but it is Actually a very achievable amount we'll Go into details on that so that's a Combination of electric vehicles and Stationary storage so if you've got Solar or wind you've got to store the
Energy when the wind is not blowing the Sun is not shining and so we're assuming Sort of an 81 ratio of uh stored energy To power so 30 terawatt hours of power 30 terawatts of power Um our actual uh Capital expenditure calculation for Manufacturing investment is more like 6 Trillion but we you know we made it Higher to make it 10 trillion and this Is across mining refining you know Battery factories recycling vehicle Factories all the things that we're Going to talk about needing to invest in To build the sustainable energy economy Yeah now if you look at the total World Economy it's just under 100 trillion so If this was spread out say over 10 years It would be one percent of the global Economy over 20 years it would be half a Percent very difficult economy so this Is uh yeah not a big number relative to The global economy As Drew mentioned you need about half as Much energy with an electric economy Versus a combustion economy and in terms Of wind and solar how much land would be Used it's less than 0.2 percent of the Land area of Earth Um Like generally people don't realize Quite how much energy is reaching us From the sun It's roughly a gigawatt per square
Kilometer Um And you know the sun doesn't shine all The time but it's uh if you multiply That by say uh For to get the continuous power four or Five uh then that that that gives you The land area of solar and you can put Wind and solar often in the same place So a lot of places that currently have Wind you could have solar there and you Double your energy you can also put wind Offshore it doesn't even need to be on Land so wind is even more flexible you Could put solar offshore too yep so Earth is 70 water Um anyway the point is that Um with a pretty really a remarkably Small amount of of Earth's land area we Can go fully sustainable Um Yeah and and and from uh to the Resources and raw materials exist to Support this transition uh we'll go Through that in detail but we do not see Any insurmountable resource challenges At all in fact in the end we should be Um mining less ore to accomplish this Economy than we currently do with the Fossil fuel economy and we're going to Talk through that yeah just to emphasize That again the electrified economy will Require less mining than the current Economy does yes less but more okay
Um so this is the plan and now we'll get Into a little bit more of the details of The plan Basically five areas of work First verbally power the existing grid Second switch to the to electric Vehicles third switch homes businesses And Industry heating to heat pumps uh Fourth high temp heat delivery uh and Storage for high temp industrial and Chemical processes and a little bit of Green hydrogen in there for chemical Porosities that need hydrogen And finally sustainable sustainably fuel Planes and boats these are the five Areas and we're going to go into detail On all of them yeah I mean my personal Opinion is that as we improve the energy Density of batteries you'll see old Transportation go fully electric with The Exception of rockets that's awkward Um but uh but you can make the for the Fuel with uh CO2 and water so you can Make methane with CO2 and water so in Fact do that with just electricity yes Exactly so uh so in fact on Mars if we Hopefully get there at some point the Atmosphere is CO2 and there's water ice Throughout Mars so you can take the CO2 And H2O and turn that into CH4 which is Methane and oxygen so ultimately even Rockets can be electrified So first repowering the existing grid
With Renewables and this is going to be A consistent theme you'll see our Estimates for the number of terawatt Hours terawatts and trillions of Investment at the bottom of the page You know this is already actively Occurring in front of US 60 of the Generation added to the US grid was Solar in 2022 and actually on a Year-on-year basis solar deployment is Growing 50 percent year on year as of 2022. so this is a this is a serious uh Uh upswing and if we continue this trend This is going to be behind us before we Even know it yeah Um Second switching to electric vehicles Again 21 uh reduction in fossil fuel use By doing this alone Obviously Tesla is heavily engaged in This activity as along with many others Overall EV production grew 59 year on Year in 2022 and Evie's hit an amazing 10 market share I mean it's an awesome Milestone I I've I'm super excited to See that I gotta yeah I mean this is uh Obviously happening very rapidly And I mean I think Really all cars will go to fully Electric and autonomous And so you're writing a non-autonomous Gasoline car is going to be analogous Riding a horse and using a flip phone That's basically going to be the
Situation and we actually took a Somewhat conservative assumption here in Terms of how many batteries are required Because the more the fleet is autonomous The the fewer the smaller the fleet Needs to be just from a utility basis so We're not accounting for all of those Benefits really much of those benefits At all in this number And what does this Fleet look like you Know just rough view from our Perspective of course we could be wrong But you know you can see the sort of Breakdown of the fleet by millions of Vehicles you know our goal is to do 20 Million electric vehicles a year yeah Fewer Vehicles will be needed at least Passenger vehicles uh with autonomy so Um There's some debate as to what that Number is but it's it's a number less Than the number of vehicles needed today There's roughly two billion cars and Trucks In operation in the world today Yeah so what we show here is actually I Think only 1.4 million or so So we're we're represent 1.4 billion I Mean or so so a smaller Fleet and you Know that the numbers are here in this Presentation are around 85 million Vehicles a year produced just to give You a sense of how we're thinking about This again we're going to put all these
Assumptions up online and you know Encourage people's thoughts yeah So Yeah so we're basically heading rapidly Towards an electric or autonomous future Exciting yeah Um and one of the reasons why EVS are so Enabling is this end use efficiency Point Um Tesla Model 3 it's four times more Efficient from the well to wheel than a Toyota Corolla and that's all about the Efficiency of getting the electricity to The into the car in a sustainable energy Economy and then how efficient the car Is uh in transferring that stored energy To motion on the road when compared to The engine in the Toyota Corolla and all The you know extraction refining Transmission distribution of the Gasoline to the Toyota Corolla and just For this is a fun reference model 3 can Drive over a mile on the energy it takes To boil a pot of water for pasta and Then it can drive another mile on the Energy it took to cook the pasta And that pasta is one pound and all Three is like four thousand pounds just To give you a sense of just like what Like it really doesn't use a lot of Energy to move a model three that four Thousand pound object down the road also Heat is a lot more energy than motion
Yeah yeah if you Spoil a pot of water you don't even Think about it you know it's just Interesting how efficient these cars are
Electric City Vehicles Cars Power
Electric City Vehicles Cars Power
Battery-powered cars and light trucks that run on electricity are gaining popularity, and for good reason. They can cut carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, which helps reduce climate change.
EVs are also more fuel-efficient than their internal combustion counterparts. They use regenerative braking to capture energy that would otherwise be wasted by slowing down, and store it in their batteries. Hybrids also use regenerative braking, but they have a gasoline engine that kicks in when the battery is depleted and the electric motor needs more power.
The range of an EV can be more than 200 miles, depending on the model. They can also recharge quickly at home or at charging stations on the road, but hot weather and cold temperatures reduce their range.
There are three types of EVs: hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and all-electric vehicles. HEVs have a lithium-ion battery that can be charged with a wall socket or at a public charging station.
A PHEV has an electric motor that can be charged with the same system or can use a separate dedicated charging station. Powered by the battery alone, a PHEV’s fuel economy is better than a standard hybrid.
There are a number of incentives to buy an EV, including tax credits, state and federal subsidies, and rebates for buying certain components. Despite these incentives, initial costs can be significantly higher than those for similar conventional vehicles. However, they are likely to equalize as production volumes increase and battery technologies continue to develop.
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